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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement receives the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

But the current race is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and recent strugglers improving in unison. During an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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